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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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